The new model targets teenage drunk driving deaths

Drunk driving claims 37 lives every day in the US with teenage and young drivers disproportionately involved. Niyousha Hosseinichimeh in the College of Engineering has collaborated with researchers across the US to create a simulation model—the first of its kind in teen drunk driving prevention—that examines how multiple public health interventions affect death.

Using the simulation model, the team tested single intervention factors, such as an increase in alternative transportation through public services or ride sharing, the passage of new restrictive laws across the US, and a higher law enforcement presence. . The model identified that the best way to reduce alcohol-related accidents among adolescents and young adults is not through a single measure, but a combined intervention strategy with three tenants:

• Passage of new restrictive laws in 50 states, such as lowering the legal limits for blood alcohol content (BAC) while driving
• Providing more alternative transport
• Higher enforcement, such as increased police presence or roadside checkpoints

The team’s findings were recently published in the journal Social Science & Medicine and underscore the importance of Hosseinichimeh’s unique mathematical modeling, which allows researchers to test multiple interventions and assess outcomes in real time to better address the complex issue of public health and social.

Why does it matter?

Alcohol-impaired driving is affected by multiple interrelated factors and long delays between actions and outcomes, complicating policy-making and increasing the risk of unintended consequences. Understanding these dynamics is essential to creating effective interventions.

“The system is very complex and no single discipline can provide an effective solution to reduce impaired driving,” Hosseinichimeh said. “We aim to provide policymakers with a better understanding of the potential impacts of their decisions.”

Hosseinichimeh, assistant professor in Grado’s Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, collaborated with Federico Vaca, a physician with the University of California, Irvine. Using funding from the National Institutes of Health (NIH), Hosseinichimeh, Vaca and a team of researchers across disciplines aimed to understand why teens drink and drive. In their previous research published in 2022, they determined how factors such as peer influence, parental monitoring and alcohol advertising are related. They found that prevention needed a multifactorial approach, so Hosseinichimeh began working on building a mathematical model. Research related to drunk driving prevention is abundant, but the use of modeling and systems engineering offers new perspectives.

“While there is extensive research on drink-impaired driving, the use of modeling and systems thinking provides a robust approach to understanding the complex and often overlooked factors that influence this issue and can lead to negative outcomes ,” Vaca said.

Key insights

• Innovative modelling: The team developed a system dynamics simulation model using group modeling sessions with input from various health and safety experts.
• Previous Research: Previous research from this study mapped complex causal outcomes and identified key feedback mechanisms influencing alcohol-impaired driving among adolescents and young adults. This map highlighted the systemic complexity that contributes to the persistence of the problem, and the researchers realized that a more complex model was needed to test interventions and see results in real time.
• Data-driven analysis: The simulation model, calibrated with data such as FBI arrests, teen driver interviews and national fatality data, accurately replicated historical trends for people ages 15 to 24.
• Effective interventions: The research found that the most impactful solution was three-pronged: enforcing new restrictive laws, increasing police presence and providing more alternative transport.
• Future directions: Despite the success of combined interventions, deaths increase over time, highlighting the need for new strategies to ensure a sustained decline in alcohol-related deaths. The research team submitted a new proposal to the NIH focusing on lowering BAC levels for selected individuals. Future projects will refine the models and test new interventions, aiming for a comprehensive solution to teenage drinking and driving.

After all

The highest proportion of alcohol-impaired drivers in fatal crashes was in the 21- to 24-year-old age group, accounting for 27 percent of all fatal crashes in 2021. Integrating diverse knowledge and expertise, Hosseinichimeh and her team are pioneered a systems engineering approach to address the complex issue of adolescent drinking and driving. Its mathematical model allows researchers to easily define a complex problem and understand the possible outcomes associated with policy decisions. The combined work not only highlights the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration, but also provides actionable insights for policymakers striving to make roads and young drivers safer.